Introduction

The expected disease burden and the additional mortality are the most relevant parameters for decisions on public health measures to contain the COVID-19 epidemic. In particular, the possible number of deaths and the burdens on the health system in comparison to bed capacities are currently being modeled as relevant parameters. The actual burden of illness and expected additional mortality however results from four main effects, that are not adequately covered by just that:

1. Direct burden of disease caused by COVID-19
2. Indirect disease burden due to overloading the health system
3. Disease burden due to economic damage caused by the pandemic / measures against the pandemic
4. Disease burden due to changes in social distance.

The currently discussed non-pharmacological measures essentially involve a different extent of the following basic scenarios:

1. A hypothetical “do nothing” scenario.
2. Different approaches to increasing the case isolation and contact quarantine proportion
3. Increased protection of population groups with an increased risk of death due to COVID-19
4. Social distance for the entire population to different degrees and in different areas (Private, school, work).

In each of these scenarios, however, all of the four main parts of the disease burden due to the COVID-19 pandemic described above must be considered. This applies to advising decision-makers as well as to public and scientific discussions. The previous calculations of the direct disease burden for the scenarios described above are not sufficient. Only with a comprehensive understanding of the emerging disease burden in different scenarios can valid decisions for measures to be taken at regional and national level be made.

We are therefor starting here with rapid reviews that cover the most important components of the burden estimates identified and apply them to the scenarios as shown. This will be continuously updated whenever we have finished new tasks.